{
  "meta": {
    "scenario": "Asha's Monday-morning escalation review: three AI-visual drivers under confound-check",
    "chapter": "Chapter 10 - AI Visuals",
    "book_figure": "Figure 10.5",
    "book_figure_svg": "assets/figures/10-key-influencers-confound-check.svg",
    "domain": "Support-operations analytics Key Influencers verification",
    "synthetic": true,
    "narrative_purpose": {
      "raw_ai": "Key Influencers ranks three drivers of escalation on Asha's support-tickets model: ticket-age-over-7-days (4.1x), Enterprise-tier (2.3x), Identity-product-line (1.8x). All three look defensible on the raw AI output.",
      "verified": "Asha runs the confound-check verification move on each driver. Driver 1 (ticket age) survives cleanly; driver 2 (Enterprise tier) collapses to a modest effect once tier is examined alongside customer size (Enterprise customers file more tickets AND have longer resolution paths - the tier effect is a proxy for size); driver 3 (Identity) survives when scoped correctly to the SSO/federation feature area but not to the product line as a whole."
    }
  },
  "drivers": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "name": "ticket age over 7 days",
      "raw_effect_multiplier": 4.1,
      "verification_move": "Filter to just aged tickets; re-check whether the effect holds independent of tier and product line",
      "verified_verdict": "survives",
      "verified_notes": "Effect size remains ~4.0x after removing tier and product-line covariates; the age effect is real and independent"
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "name": "Enterprise tier",
      "raw_effect_multiplier": 2.3,
      "verification_move": "Add customer-size (annual contract value) as a co-Explain-by field and re-run",
      "verified_verdict": "confound",
      "verified_notes": "Effect collapses to ~1.2x when customer-size is included; Enterprise-tier was serving as a proxy for customer size (Enterprise customers are larger; larger customers file more tickets)",
      "action": "Do not surface as an escalation driver in the standup; add a caveat to the report's working file"
    },
    {
      "id": 3,
      "name": "Identity product line",
      "raw_effect_multiplier": 1.8,
      "verification_move": "Filter to Identity tickets; remove ticket-age and customer-tier from Explain-by; re-check at the feature-area level",
      "verified_verdict": "survives_when_scoped",
      "verified_notes": "Effect holds at ~1.9x for the SSO/federation feature area specifically; does NOT hold for other Identity feature areas",
      "action": "Report as 'SSO/federation feature area' rather than 'Identity product line' to avoid overclaiming"
    }
  ],
  "smart_narrative_edits": [
    {
      "kind": "remove_driver",
      "target": "Enterprise tier",
      "reason": "Confound with customer size"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scope_driver",
      "target": "Identity",
      "new_text": "SSO/federation feature area",
      "reason": "Effect holds only at feature-area level"
    }
  ],
  "anomaly_detection_notes": {
    "flagged_event": "morning of the second Tuesday of the month",
    "actual_cause": "publicized customer-facing identity integration rollout",
    "action": "Do not surface in the standup; note the recurrence pattern in the working file so the sensitivity slider can be adjusted"
  },
  "decomposition_tree_notes": {
    "ai_selected_path_root": "Escalation",
    "ai_selected_path": [
      "Enterprise tier",
      "Identity product line",
      "ticket age over 7 days"
    ],
    "verdict": "Path includes the confound; do not quote the tree walk without the co-Explain-by check on Enterprise tier"
  },
  "review_summary": {
    "drivers_reviewed": 3,
    "drivers_that_survived": 1,
    "drivers_that_survived_with_scope_change": 1,
    "drivers_that_collapsed_as_confound": 1,
    "smart_narrative_edits": 2,
    "artifacts_touched_in_bundle": 6
  },
  "source_sha256": "c7502303d41f73e000c32dad6c587d68516d29746da419a5c24b077b2e92ac82"
}